Novo Nordisk has revised its 2025 sales and operating profit growth outlook downwards, now projecting 8-14% and 10-16% growth at CER, respectively. This adjustment follows a strong first half of 2025 marked by 18% sales growth and 29% operating profit growth at CER, figures influenced by prior-year adjustments and the acquisition of Catalent manufacturing sites.
The lowered forecast raises critical questions about the sustainability of the explosive growth in the GLP-1 market, particularly in the face of emerging challenges. The company cites several factors contributing to this revision, primarily impacting its flagship obesity drug, Wegovy. These include persistent competition from compounded GLP-1 products, slower-than-anticipated market expansion, and the dynamics of competition within both insured and cash pay markets.
This revised outlook underscores the complex interplay of market access, pricing, and competition in the rapidly evolving landscape of obesity management. Novo Nordisk’s struggles to control the narrative around compounded semaglutide highlight the challenge of maintaining market share amidst regulatory ambiguities and the allure of lower-cost alternatives. For Commercial teams across the industry, this serves as a stark reminder that even groundbreaking therapies are not immune to market pressures. The effectiveness of strategies to counter compounding, such as litigation and direct-to-patient initiatives like NovoCare pharmacy, will be closely scrutinized.
The company’s acknowledgment of slower market expansion and increased competition for both Wegovy and Ozempic signals a potential inflection point in the GLP-1 market. Payers are increasingly scrutinizing the value proposition of these therapies, especially in the context of burgeoning healthcare costs. Medical Affairs teams will play a vital role in demonstrating the long-term clinical and economic benefits of GLP-1s beyond weight loss, particularly in areas like cardiovascular and metabolic health. Furthermore, demonstrating differentiated clinical outcomes and real-world effectiveness will be essential for maintaining premium pricing in a market becoming increasingly crowded with GLP-1 receptor agonists.
Looking ahead, Novo Nordisk’s performance in the second half of 2025 will be a crucial indicator of the long-term trajectory of the GLP-1 market. The anticipated regulatory decision on the Wegovy NASH indication and the impact of formulary changes, such as CVS’s preferential coverage of Wegovy for obesity, will significantly influence market dynamics. Whether Novo Nordisk can successfully navigate these challenges and maintain its leadership position in this transformative therapeutic area remains a critical question for the industry.
Jon Napitupulu is Director of Media Relations at The Clinical Trial Vanguard. Jon, a computer data scientist, focuses on the latest clinical trial industry news and trends.
